Classic Disruption: Why Wal-Mart's Movie Plan Will Fail

Update Dec. 29, 2007:

Wal-Mart shut down its video download service.

Original Post Nov. 29, 2006:

Wal-Mart joins the battle for online videos in a disturbingly familiar way.

In the worst kind of compromise, Wal-Mart is cramming the new thing, movie dowloads, into the old business model, retail store purchases. To download a movie at home, you have to buy a movie at the store, at least to start, according to the Wall Street Journal:

The service represents a sort of halfway solution: The giant retailer will require customers to buy a DVD before providing them a "feature sticker" with instructions on how to buy downloads.

As Wal-Mart explained in the NY Times, it wants to maintain the old:

“We feel like it is really important that the DVD business stays healthy and stays quite central to consumers’ lives,” said Kevin Swint, a divisional merchandising manager at Wal-Mart.

Cramming seldom works for disruptive innovation because it compromises on what consumers want and it restricts the growth potential of the new innovation. Whenever you see an incumbent supplier adopt a new innovation but in a way that severely restrict or impairs its use in order to preserve the old and expensive cost structure, you've got cramming. Look for words like 'hybrid', or 'best of both world's' as warning signs.

Microsoft's early efforts in WebTV and portable devices would be examples of cramming the PC operating system business model in places where it did not fit. Note the absence of success despite years of effort and huge expenditures.

In the case of video downloads, Wal-Mart's new competitors that are not in the business of operating  retail stores would see no reason to restrict themselves with such compromises.

BitTorrent, a pirate download site which today announced legit content deals with Fox, Paramount and several other studios, and Apple Computer, which dominates the download music business, for example, won't worry about maintaining sales at retail outlets the way Wal-Mart does.

For examples of cramming, consider these:

• No record company created a simple buck-a-song download service because they could not see a way to do this without hurting their retail sales. (Apple, free of this worry, succeeded despite the fact that its biggest competitors were free pirate sites like Napster.)
• Nokia crammed wireless email, web, fax relay, phone, SMS and applications into the doomed Nokia 9000 Communicator, a brick of a phone that did nothing well and sold poorly in the early days of wireless e-mail;
• Every major newspaper publisher created online websites that replicated their old business onto the web. Very few have achieved any success.

**Other Views**
Harvard Prof. Clayton Christensen is the pioneer on disruptive innovation and he outlines why  cramming fails in this Working Knowledge paper.

The Disruption Group's site lists the benefits of disruptive strategy including higher-value to customers, new revenue streams and sustainable high return on equity. 

Mathew Ingram says the BitTorrent deal is not important because there is no BitTorrent network to speak of.

GoodMorningSiliconValley says the transition from pirate site to legit business is a difficult one.

TechCrunch says BitTorrent raised $25M bringing its total capital to $34M. The company's big challenge is to stay on the right side of copyright owners.

SeekingAlpha says Apple will eclipse BitTorrent and Wal-Mart's efforts.

Don't bet on BitTorrent, says Andrew Chen. After nine months of trying to commercialize a download service based on BitTorrent, he says it's too complicated for mainstream consumers and it doesn't provide the instant gratification they want.

Comments

[Esenthal Prave]

I'm not sure what the hold-up is... maybe they have re-thought their stance on how this is going to actually make the company any money. Or perhaps their lawyers pointed out the liability of providing agents a platform to stick their feet in their mouth. Whatever it is, it's hardly something I'd claim as being "Well done".
www.jebshouse.com/wordletter.php?l=D

[Julie, writer surefirewealth.com]

Why are they trying to compete with Apple? And renting movie downloads on retail just sounds a little redundant. If people wanted to rent a movie, they'd rent it from a real video store. And Apple is so much more different than Wal-Mart in terms of marketing and product conceptualizing. It's going to go down. I agree with you.

[Graham Horton]

The project does seem to have all the attributes of cramming; congratulations on your prediction :)

Graham