Microsoft's Vista Flop Shows Market is Over-Shot

Update: As expected, Microsoft Vista is getting a cold reaction from buyers according to news reports and blogs.

• Seeking Alpha says reception is "so-so."
• Joe at TechDirt says the release of a new operating system just isn't what it used to be.
• Good Morning Silicon Valley says it will take a re-invigoration of the PC market to signal success.

Here's an excerpt from our posting in early November that examined whether the operating system market was over-shot and ripe for disruption:

When a proven management method fails, it may be a signal that the market is over-shot. Typically in such cases, suppliers continue to innovate and improve on things that no longer matter to customers. Operating system upgrades created the market boom for companies like Microsoft, Dell, HP etc. 

This raises a question: Is that boom over? 

Overshooting customer needs is a core element of disruptive innovation because an overshot customer base will include a segment that will likely accept a so-called inferior product if it meets some other important needs, typically for:

• Greater convenience
• Simplicity
• Accessibility
• Lower cost
• Greater flexibility

The disruptive question is whether a new entrant operating system or application is now good enough? And what other products have already passed the "good enough point?"

**Other Resources**
Harvard Prof. Clayton Christensen's newsletter looks at four industries facing disruption (pdf), including office software.  Located on The Disruption Group's news page.

• Tools for managing disruption.

Comments

[Bagelturf]

As I wrote six months ago, Apple is already the new Good Enough:

http://homepage.mac.com/bagelturf/files/7ecb93b71f481fb43fbec54fe2a7ca03-489.html

What is interesting about Microsoft in this situation is that that they *are* the market. It's not just the market that is overshot, Microsoft itself is overshot.

In a corner, Microsoft has now passed the "then they laugh at you" stage and is now entering "then they fight you".

But Apple is fighting a different battle. Apple's battle is for the whole car. Microsoft only owns the dashboard.